Free Tool · Pricing, Profitability & Portfolio

Trade Promotion ROI & Post-Mortem Analyzer

The scheme spiked sales. Did it make money? Run the post-mortem.

The scheme spiked sales — but did it make money? Enter baseline and promoted volumes, prices, costs and your cannibalisation assumptions; the analyzer separates real increment from borrowed demand and computes true ROI.

For: Trade Marketing / Sales Head·Free — no sign-up for results·Related service: Pricing & Revenue Management
Observed uplift is not incremental uplift. Cannibalisation and pull-forward are your declared assumptions — the honest post-mortem states them rather than hiding them.
Promotion post-mortem
Observed uplift600 units
Less: cannibalised + pulled forward−276 units
Truly incremental324 units → ₹9,720
Scheme cost₹8,000
Promotion ROI21.5%
Break-even incremental uplift267 units
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How it works

Observed uplift minus cannibalised full-price sales minus pulled-forward demand = genuinely incremental units. Incremental contribution minus scheme cost = the promotion's truth.

Cannibalisation and pull-forward are declared assumptions with defaults (15% and 10%) — honest ranges, visible on the output, not hidden precision.

Break-even uplift shows the incremental volume the scheme needed just to pay for itself — the bar for next time.

Worked example

A festival scheme moves 1,600 units against a 1,000 baseline. After cannibalisation (240) and pull-forward (36), only 324 units are truly incremental — ₹9,720 contribution against ₹8,000 scheme cost: a 21.5% ROI, not the 60% spike the dashboard celebrated.

Illustrative figures, not a client outcome.

Questions, answered

How do I estimate cannibalisation honestly?

Compare non-promoted SKUs and channels during the window, and watch the weeks after for the pull-forward dip. First time, use 10–20% and mark it as an assumption.

Are promotions ever worth a negative ROI?

As customer acquisition with measured repeat behaviour — occasionally. As a habit — never. The after-action template forces the question every time.

Version 1.0 · Reviewed 2026-10 · Methodology is fixed and version-controlled; results depend on your inputs.

Keep going

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P02
Price Waterfall & Pocket Price Builder
Gross-to-net pocket price waterfall with deduction categories and exceptions.
P03
Discount Damage Simulator
Contribution impact, volume-preservation requirement and 0–30% discount curve.

Schemes audited. Now make trade spend an investment, not a habit.

BLEZZINGS runs this analysis inside a focused engagement — with your data, your market and a plan to act on it.