Size the market you can actually win, not the one that wins the pitch.
Top-down sizing — 'the market is $X billion and we want 1%' — fools pitch decks and fails plans. Build up from accounts, frequency and value, then apply honest filters for geography, fit and capability.
TAM = reachable accounts × purchases per year × average value. Every factor should trace to a named source: a census, a panel, a licence list, your own CRM.
SAM applies three filters — geographies you will serve, segments your offer fits, and share reachable with current capability. The tool warns when filters are too generous.
SOM shows three share scenarios. Anything above ~20% share is flagged as a stretch case, not a plan.
Illustrative figures, not a client outcome.
Reports size categories, not your opportunity. They mix price points, channels and regions you will never touch. Use them for context; build your number bottom-up.
Directionally right beats precisely wrong. If you guess a factor, mark it as an assumption and test the two that swing the answer most.
Version 1.0 · Reviewed 2026-10 · Methodology is fixed and version-controlled; results depend on your inputs.
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